What is a wildfire risk map?

A geographic visualization of modeled wildfire likelihood and intensity. The leading public sources are the USDA Forest Service Wildfire Risk to Communities map and California's CAL FIRE Fire Hazard Severity Zones. Both score regions; address-level scoring requires a model that incorporates slope, vegetation, distance, and wind.

How accurate are wildfire risk maps?

Regional maps are accurate at the regional scale they're built for. They underestimate or overestimate at the individual-home level because two houses 200 feet apart can have very different exposure depending on slope, defensible space, and prevailing wind.

What makes a home high wildfire risk?

Proximity to wildland vegetation, steep upslope terrain, prevailing wind direction, dense surrounding canopy, combustible roofing or siding, and lack of defensible space. Recent drought and historical fire frequency for the broader area compound all of these.

Can I lower my home's wildfire risk?

Yes, substantially. Class-A roof, ember-resistant vents, 5-foot non-combustible perimeter, defensible space cleared out to 30 feet, and removal of attached wood structures (fences, decks) can reduce home loss probability significantly in modeled events.

Where can I check wildfire risk for my address?

ArchipelAI's homeowner demo scores wildfire risk for any US address using slope, vegetation, distance, wind, and drought data, alongside flood, wind, and heat.

Wildfire risk map: how to read it for your home.

How to read a wildfire risk map.

What the colors mean, why two neighbors can score very differently, and how to translate a map into a plan for your house.

The maps that exist today

USDA Forest Service — Wildfire Risk to Communities. National coverage, community-level. Combines burn probability and intensity.
CAL FIRE Fire Hazard Severity Zones. California specific, used in building-code decisions.
State and federal "Red Flag" daily fire weather forecasts. Short-horizon operational risk, not long-term hazard.
First Street and similar models. Address-level wildfire scoring using vegetation, slope, and climate.

How to read the colors

Most maps use a 4 or 5 step scale from "low" to "very high." The underlying number is a blend of two things:

Burn probability — how often, on average, fire reaches this cell in modeled fire seasons.
Conditional flame length / intensity — how intense the fire is likely to be if it does arrive.

A "very high" score means both are elevated. A neighborhood can score "low" on burn probability but "high" on intensity (e.g. a steep canyon with infrequent but extreme fires), so always check both layers if the map provides them.

Why two neighbors can score very differently

Slope. Fire moves much faster uphill. Two houses 200 feet apart on opposite sides of a ridge can have radically different exposures.
Vegetation type and density. Manicured turf and irrigated landscape behave very differently from dry chaparral or unmanaged pine.
Defensible space. A cleared 30 to 100 foot perimeter often determines whether embers find fuel near the structure.
Construction. Class-A roof, ember-resistant vents, and a 5-foot non-combustible perimeter can move modeled home loss probability by an order of magnitude.
Prevailing wind. The downwind side of a hillside is exposed; the upwind side, much less so.

From map to action

Score your address. Don't rely on the regional color of the map alone — use a model that takes your exact coordinates, slope, and vegetation into account. Run ours.
Harden the structure. Class-A roof, mesh vents, no wood fencing within 5 feet of the house, double-pane tempered windows on the exposed side.
Create defensible space out to 30 feet. Remove or thin vegetation, keep gutters and roof clean.
Plan the road. Make sure your driveway is wide enough for a fire engine and your address is clearly marked.
Insure intentionally. Some carriers offer mitigation discounts; document everything with dated photos.

What we publish on our map

The ArchipelAI homeowner dashboard layers wildfire likelihood, recent burn-area perimeters, current drought conditions, and a 20-year outlook for the surrounding area. Combined with flood, wind, heat, and grid-outage scoring for the same address, it gives a complete picture for any US home.

// frequently asked

Common questions

What is a wildfire risk map?: A geographic visualization of modeled wildfire likelihood and intensity. The leading public sources are the USDA Forest Service Wildfire Risk to Communities map and California's CAL FIRE Fire Hazard Severity Zones. Both score regions; address-level scoring requires a model that incorporates slope, vegetation, distance, and wind.
How accurate are wildfire risk maps?: Regional maps are accurate at the regional scale they're built for. They underestimate or overestimate at the individual-home level because two houses 200 feet apart can have very different exposure depending on slope, defensible space, and prevailing wind.
What makes a home high wildfire risk?: Proximity to wildland vegetation, steep upslope terrain, prevailing wind direction, dense surrounding canopy, combustible roofing or siding, and lack of defensible space. Recent drought and historical fire frequency for the broader area compound all of these.
Can I lower my home's wildfire risk?: Yes, substantially. Class-A roof, ember-resistant vents, 5-foot non-combustible perimeter, defensible space cleared out to 30 feet, and removal of attached wood structures (fences, decks) can reduce home loss probability significantly in modeled events.
Where can I check wildfire risk for my address?: ArchipelAI's homeowner demo scores wildfire risk for any US address using slope, vegetation, distance, wind, and drought data, alongside flood, wind, and heat.

// try the model

Run this on your address.

See your address-level flood, fire, wind, heat, and outage scores — plus a 20-year outlook. No login for the demo.

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