Home insurance and climate change.
What's actually driving non-renewals and premium hikes — and the moves a homeowner can make this year.
What's happening to the homeowners market
Major carriers have pulled back from new policies in California, Florida, Louisiana, and parts of the Gulf Coast. State Farm, Allstate, Farmers, AIG, and others have either stopped writing new policies or narrowed where they will. The driver is straightforward: modeled losses from wildfire, hurricane, and severe convective storms now exceed what current premiums can cover, and reinsurance — the insurance that insurers buy — has gotten much more expensive since the 2022–2024 catastrophe years.
For homeowners, that shows up as non-renewal notices, premium hikes of 20–60% at renewal, higher deductibles (especially separate wind and wildfire deductibles), and dropped coverage for things like screened enclosures, pools, and detached structures.
"Uninsurable" usually doesn't mean no coverage
When a home is called uninsurable, it almost always means the admitted-market carriers (the brand names you've heard of, regulated by your state) won't write it. Coverage usually still exists through:
- State-backed insurers of last resort — California FAIR Plan, Florida Citizens, Louisiana Citizens, Texas TWIA. Premiums are higher and coverage is narrower (dwelling-only is common), but they exist.
- Surplus-lines carriers — non-admitted insurers that can take on harder risks. They're not backed by state guaranty funds, so vet the carrier's financial strength rating.
- Stacked policies — a basic state-backed dwelling policy plus a separate surplus-lines wrap for liability and contents.
What's actually driving your premium
- Address-level peril exposure. Modeled wildfire and flood frequency for your exact location, not just your county.
- Construction characteristics. Roof age and material, exterior cladding, attached vegetation, foundation height.
- Reinsurance market. Global reinsurance pricing has roughly doubled since 2020; carriers pass that through.
- Litigation environment. Florida and Louisiana premiums carry an explicit loading for assignment-of-benefits and roof-claim litigation.
- Loss history on the home and within the zip code.
What homeowners can do
- Get your risk in writing before you buy. Ask the seller for two written renewal quotes. If neither carrier will commit, you've learned something important before closing.
- Harden the home. Class-A roof, ember-resistant vents, defensible space out to 30 feet, hurricane shutters or impact glass, water shutoff sensors. Several states (CA, FL) now require carriers to discount premiums for verified mitigation.
- Document everything. Photo evidence of roof condition, defensible space, and shutoffs. Carriers increasingly demand it at renewal and will non-renew if you can't produce it.
- Shop independent. An independent agent who places with surplus lines can find coverage when captive agents can't.
- Increase your deductible deliberately. A higher named-storm or wildfire deductible can keep a policy in force, but make sure you have the cash to absorb it.
Why a forward view matters
Underwriting is moving from "what did we pay last year here" to "what does the climate model say this address looks like in 2035?". The carriers writing your renewal are already using forward-looking catastrophe models. Homeowners should be too. An address-level climate score makes it possible to compare two houses on the same street and price the insurability gap before signing.
Common questions
- Why is my home insurance being non-renewed?
- Carriers non-renew when projected losses on a property — or a neighborhood — exceed what the policy premium covers. Climate-driven wildfire, hurricane, and flood losses have made entire zip codes unprofitable for major insurers in California, Florida, and Louisiana.
- What makes a home 'uninsurable'?
- A house becomes effectively uninsurable when admitted-market carriers refuse to write it. Coverage usually still exists through state-backed plans (California FAIR, Florida Citizens) or surplus-lines carriers, but at multiples of the prior premium and often with narrower coverage.
- Does climate change actually raise my premium?
- Yes — directly and indirectly. Carriers raise base rates as modeled losses climb, and reinsurance costs (the insurance insurers buy) have risen sharply since 2022, pushing those costs through to homeowners.
- Can I do anything to keep my insurance?
- Mitigation works. Class-A roofs, defensible space, hurricane shutters, water shutoffs, and certified home hardening reduce risk and sometimes premiums. Document everything — carriers increasingly require photo evidence at renewal.
- Where do I check my home's risk?
- Run your address through ArchipelAI's homeowner demo for a current-climate score across flood, wildfire, wind, heat, and grid outages, plus a 20-year outlook.
Run this on your address.
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