SPECIES SHIFT
Plant for the future site.
A working stand planted today is a bet on the climate at maturity. Here's how to score candidate species against a 20-year envelope and stage the shift.
The candidate-scoring checklist
- Envelope fit at year 20 and year 40, not year 0.
- Fire tolerance at projected fuel loads and FWI.
- Drought tolerance at projected drought-code range.
- Pest exposure under projected overwintering conditions.
- Market/value fit for the working timber block (or, for community catchments, canopy-cover objective).
What ArchipelAI gives you
The Forest Health workspace scores each species in your mix against the 20-year climate outlook for the site and surfaces candidates with better projected fit. Try the pattern in the forestry demo.
Related reading
// frequently asked
Common questions
- What is a climate envelope?
- The temperature, precipitation, and heat-stress range where a species reproduces and thrives. As the mean climate shifts, the envelope drifts — and stands sitting near the warm/dry edge of their envelope face the fastest decline.
- How far ahead should replanting decisions be made?
- For most working species, replanting decisions should target the climate 20–40 years out — a full rotation past the planting year. Planting for today's climate leaves the stand mismatched at maturity.
- What are common replanting candidates for a warming site?
- In the western boreal, more drought-tolerant pines and some hardwood introductions. In eastern boreal, southern-boreal mixes that already thrive one climate zone south. In the Sierra WUI, fire-adapted species with lower ladder-fuel loads.
- How much of a mix should shift at once?
- Rarely all of it. Staged 20–30% shifts across replanting cycles preserve optionality if the projection is off, and preserve genetic diversity in the working landscape.
// try the model
Run this on your address.
See your address-level flood, fire, wind, heat, and outage scores — plus a 20-year outlook. No login for the demo.
// related guides